A few things to know this week: April 3, 2020
Happy Friday, friends! Every week we collect some of the best things that members of our Verdunity team read, watched, or listened to over the course of the week.
We're another week into COVID-19. It's been tough to watch, and will get even harder in the next few weeks as things accelerate toward what will hopefully be the apex of the curve. If you happen to know any healthcare workers who are on the front lines battling this thing or other (truly) essential workers who continue to go to work every day so the rest of us can suffer by working from home (that's sarcasm, folks), please tell them thank you and let them know how much I and the rest of our Verdunity crew appreciate them. There are some good things happening out there too though. If you haven't seen it, check out Some Good News with John Krasinski. Now on to this week's digest. – Kevin
New on the Go Cultivate! podcast:
Where do cities go from here? Lessons for the Corona Crisis
We discuss (some of) the flaws of our approach to development that are being exposed and magnified by this growing crisis, as well as some of the opportunities that cities have for doing things differently from here on out. It turns out that being resilient is exponentially more important in a disaster.
This week’s things to know:
This article is packed and hits on several topics including:
With the $2.2 trillion CARES bill now passed, the President and Congress are considering a fourth stimulus package focused on infrastructure. The big question is what types of infrastructure will they fund? Will it be investing in public transit, bike/ped networks, and broadband, or will it be doubling down on expanding roads? In my opinion, I don't really want to see any more stimulus money spent, but if it goes forward, the former would be an investment with potential for great returns, while the latter would be an expense that just exacerbates current fiscal, environmental, and social challenges we're facing today.
Typically, recessions are a time when local government refinance or take on additional municipal bonds to fund capital projects due to the low interest rates. This time though, the municipal bond market is under stress and costs to issue municipal debt are skyrocketing. This prompted one public finance expert to suggest opening the rarely used Federal Financing Bank arm of the U.S. Treasury to state and local governments to help them access low cost funding. It's an interesting concept that I personally see as the last line of defense before many state and local agencies are pressed to consider filing for bankruptcy.
One survey on the economy in the year ahead. 50% said GDP would drop sharply but begin to rebound in late 2020; 30% think we're headed for a financial crisis and deep, long recession that exposes weak financial structure in some economies and sectors; and 20% expect to say a slow, steady recovery where GDP rises slowly over several years. The easy route (in this situation) for city leaders and finance directors would be to go with the first or third options. The real leaders in my mind are going to be the ones who give strong consideration to the second scenario and put policies and plans in place to manage that environment. – Kevin
When will your city feel the fiscal impact of COVID-19? (Brookings)
Many cities are asking this question right now: when will we truly feel the full fiscal impact of COVID-19? The authors of this Brookings piece drive home the point we've been talking about here at Verdunity: it depends on your tax structure. A city largely reliant on property taxes will not feel the pinch as severely. For those who lean heavily on sales or income taxes, however... it's gonna hurt. Tulsa, Lincoln, Denver, and Oklahoma City (to name a few) should brace for impact. Cities with a large share of employment in high-risk industries will likewise start to feel the sting quickly. In Texas, there are a number of cities who are going to be taking that hit quickly. Brookings' analysis shows that:
Amarillo, Lubbock, Austin, College Station, Houston, Corpus Christi, & Brownsville will experience more immediate fiscal impacts;
El Paso, Fort Worth, Dallas, San Antonio, Laredo, and McAllen will feel that fiscal impact, but it will be midterm.
If ever there were a time to re-examine business as usual, well, we've arrived at it. As someone who worked in both Amarillo and Lubbock (and as a current Lubbock resident), I've been dismayed at the continual reliance on more volatile sources of funding. I'm hopeful that the communities listed above—and many others—will see the current state of affairs, paired with the kickoff for FY20-21 budgets, as an opportunity to have the candid conversations necessary to set out on a path to resilience. Whether you're investigating or ready to take the next steps, we're here to help you. Getting an accurate picture of where your city stands is crucial, and we're happy to be part of that process. – AJ
Lessons from States that Embraced Telework Before the Coronavirus (Route Fifty)
Our team at Verdunity has been set up to work remotely since our start back in 2011, but for many government agencies and even some private firms, this is new. This article discusses how state and local governments are working together to share lessons learned as they seek to implement telework quickly. Utah and Tennessee are two states that have been leading the way. Videoconferencing has obviously taken off, but if you're looking for a few additional resources that I've found helpful, check out the book Remote and the authors' software, Basecamp. Our team uses Basecamp religiously even when we're in the office, but at times like this, it's especially useful. – Kevin
Shreveport Addresses COVID-19 Hotspots with Positive Reinforcement (KSLA)
As the effects of COVID-19 emerge, citizens face dilemmas between making smart health choices and supporting local businesses. In Shreveport, local 'hotspots' are emerging due to citizens not taking physical distancing mandates seriously. While the police have made efforts to disperse gatherings in local businesses, the city is also taking a new approach to manage this dilemma. One effort between the mayor and the local Chamber of Commerce is cardshop318.com, a safer way for citizens to help out their local businesses during crisis. The website allows folks to buy gift cards to their favorite businesses. This is a great example of how cities can use positive reinforcement to keep their communities safe. – Tim
Dallas Finally Seeks to Take Active Role In Transit-Oriented Development (D Magazine)
Dallas may, at long last, be starting to see the value in transit-oriented development. The City made plans for a yearlong study of what properties within a half-mile of the city's light rail are prime for development. The study was spurred by a discussion of the rider-to-total-population comparisons, land statistics, and personal experiences that combined to all say the same thing. Dallas has promised transit-oriented development since the inception of DART in the 1980s, but here we are with only 9% of the city's operable landmass within a half-mile radius of the rail. Of course, most of this land is also zoned for single-family or industrial development, but placing a focus on this kind of development is an important step—not least for the financial viability of the city. What is your city actively doing to come out on the other side of this crisis a more human scale, fiscally resilient place? – Ryan
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COVID-19 Reveals the Urgent Need to House the Homeless (Texas Observer)
Economic and health crises always hit the worst-off the hardest. This piece is a good reminder that the population our society has forgotten (despite many more vacant housing units than homeless individuals in the U.S.) is more vulnerable to this disaster than just about anyone (and given the lack of tenant protections in Texas, we're possibly and infuriatingly about to have many more without homes). Many homeless people live "unsheltered," and existing homeless shelters are overrun (many of them always are). One step some cities are taking right now (including Dallas) is reserving hotel rooms for homeless people. This piece highlights a few other options. I think this moment (however long it lasts) keeps showing us things we always had the capacity to do, but always found reasons not to do it. We can put every homeless person in a home; there is nothing stopping us from ending that particular crisis other than a lack of the will to do so. – Jordan
The Big Unanswered Questions about the Federal Reserve's Coronavirus Response (Notes on the Crises – Nathan Tankus)
I can't stop reading about the various responses to these overlaying crises. I don't know if that's a good idea. It's confusing and depressing, but I do find that Nathan Tankus makes a lot of the it easier to understand. Here's his most recent piece, covering the biggest questions that we still don't have answers to, as far as the Fed's response is concerned—including "When are we going to get a municipal and state debt purchase program?" (He'll be following up on that question on Monday.) He might come from a different macroeconomic school of thought than you (or other members of our team), but his analysis is still worth reading. He also has an ongoing series explaining the Fed's coronavirus response actions, which is a great way to catch up on it all. – Jordan
Video: CRC Chats: Chris Arnade & Back Row America (Center on Religion and Culture)
Here's a good 45-minute discussion with Chris Arnade on class, inequality, COVID-19, celebrity culture, and his book Dignity. (Video cuts out a few times, but that just makes it more relatable.) – Jordan
Want to learn more about how fiscal analysis can help you make your city stronger financially?
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Hey, friends in local government:
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